AlphaLabX1 — Internal Research · Vol. II
The S&P 500 and its eleven sectors, seen through two P/E lenses — and the market's mood, plotted against the price beneath it.
Today's read
Health Care is near its richest five-year valuation, at the 97th percentile, while Communication Services is near its cheapest, at the 10th. Utilities and Real Estate were the week’s biggest moves cheaper, but Consumer Discretionary moved richer, leaving a selective market with Fear & Greed at 42.
Written from today's readings by gpt-5.6-luna-pro. Figures checked against the data.
Each dot is a sector's current P/E placed as a percentile of its own trailing five years. Right is expensive. A reading of 50 sits on the sector's own five-year median.
Sectors ordered richest → cheapest against their own history. Click any row to isolate it on the chart below.
Each sector's five-year percentile against where it stood one week and one month ago, biggest richward drift first. Red grows right — getting richer; green grows left — getting cheaper.
Forward view shows 12-month analyst estimates; trailing view uses reported TTM earnings — both daily since 2003 (Real Estate 2016, Communication Services 2018). The percentile view replots every series as its rolling five-year rank, 0–100. The Y axis auto-scales to whichever window and series are visible.
MacroMicro's Fear & Greed composite reduces the market's mood to a single 0–100 reading. Under 25 is panicked fear; over 75 is euphoric greed.
Sentiment on the left axis, S&P 500 on the right. Bear phases bottom with fear readings below 25; tops tend to coincide with extreme-greed plateaus — not coincidence, but also not a tradable signal on its own.
S&P 500 price return (SPY, ex-dividends) 3, 6, and 12 months after each daily Fear & Greed reading. Descriptive, not a strategy: windows overlap heavily, the sample starts in 2021 and spans a single cycle — one bear market, one long bull run.
| Condition | Sample | 3M later | 6M later | 12M later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme fearF&G below 25 | 205days | +5.9%77% up · n=204 | +7.4%74% up · n=182 | +15.1%65% up · n=161 |
| Extreme greedF&G above 75 | 79days | +0.9%57% up · n=79 | +8.2%99% up · n=79 | +23.3%99% up · n=79 |
| Any readingevery day since 2021 | 1375days | +4.0%71% up · n=1310 | +7.2%75% up · n=1246 | +15.3%78% up · n=1117 |
Three stacked panels on one time axis. Top: the index. Middle: its forward P/E against the 20th–80th percentile band of the trailing five years, plus a 200-day moving average. Bottom: forward earnings yield (1 ÷ forward P/E) next to the 10-year Treasury yield, with bars showing the spread — bars near zero mean stocks no longer offer much premium over bonds.